I found myself thinking about this just last week after finishing 'The Ministry for the Future' by Kim Stanley Robinson. It's dense and heavy on policy talk at points, but the specific disasters it imagines are terrifyingly plausible – a catastrophic heatwave in India and geoengineering projects that spin out of control. It’s a book that doesn't let you look away from the institutional and physical chaos.
Older but still super relevant is Paolo Bacigalupi’s 'The Water Knife'. It focuses on water wars in a near-future American Southwest. It’s less about a single planet-ending event and more about the slow, brutal collapse of society over resources. The eco-disaster is a permanent dust-bowl state, and the story is a violent thriller set in that world. It felt more immediate to me than some far-future tales.
John Barnes’ 'Mother of Storms' is a wilder, more explosive take. It involves a climate feedback loop triggered by methane release, leading to hyper-hurricanes that literally reshape continents. The science might be exaggerated, but the scale of the imagined destruction is cinematic and horrifying. It’s a good pick if you want a disaster novel with a capital D.